Akholi Research Models

Akholi Research developed a series of fourteen models that help us quickly measure the performance of any economy across a combination of more than 3,000 indicators. With these models, we are able to accurately measure a country’s performance against various collection of peer (or target) countries on a strict per capita performance basis. These models allow us to do the following:

  1. Create a comprehensive and multidimensional measurement of a wide variety of indicators for any country globally.
  2. Quickly identify strengths and weaknesses.
  3. Gain understanding of why a country underperforms or overperforms against peer countries for specific indicators.
  4. Create theoretical targets for a range of economic indicators that have the potential to transform the country’s greater economy.

Our models are as follows:

Base Performance

Our base performance represents the current value of the indicator n a per capita basis for the specific country being studied. While we do our own market research on many topics, we go to great lengths to find the per capita value for the indicator from proven data sources. We often are not able to find the per capita value for key indicators from sources such as IMF, World Bank, OECD and others. When a per capita value is not available, we calculate the value based on a strict process dividing the root metric by the official population for each specific year. We clearly call out the source of this per capita value and note if the value was calculated by Akholi Research. On occasion, either the root value or the population are missing for a specific country / year. When this occurs, we attempt to fill in gaps by averaging the prior and post year value for the missing data point. While we may use this synthesized value for charts, etc. we do not use these synthesized values for our greater economic assessment or modeling process.

Model 1: Global Average

Our first model represents the global per capita average for the indicator. This is the base value we never go below for any of our modeling activities. For each country, regardless of location or level of development, we target performance above this model average.

In some instances, other models for a specific / country combination will present a lower value than our Model 1 calculation. When this does occur, we continue to hold fast to our set rule of using Model 1 as our floor target and exclude the other (and lower value) model from our targeting process.

Model 2: Regional Average

The Akholi Model 2 represents the average per capita value for the indicator for all countries within the same official geographic region. While there is a great deal of variability in economic and workforce performance in almost all regions, we do not exclude low or high performing countries from this model.

We also acknowledge that there can be a great deal of variability in the assets and liabilities between countries in the same geographic region. Not all peer countries within these regions have the same workforce, economic, social or political dynamic. There are examples where straight per capita performance comparisons between a specific country and peer countries within the same region for a specific indicator do no provide material value.

The above said, this is usually a fair method for gauging workforce and economic performance for a country against other countries with similar cultures, education rates, histories, global perception, etc.

Model 3: Indicator 2nd Quintile Average

After the per capita value for each indicator / country combination has been verified, we rank each country globally. Once each country has been ranked, we divide all countries into quintiles.

The Akholi Research Model 3 presents the average per capita value for all countries within the second highest performing quintile for the indicator being studied.

While this value may be unreachable for many countries on a per indicator basis, this presents a reasonable and realistic target value for many emerging economies. If the country being assessed were to achieve this average per capita value, they would be ranked within the top 40% of all countries for the specific indicator.

Model 4: Income Group Average

For the indicator being studied, we calculate the average per capita value of all countries within the same official income group classification.

This model provides us with an increased ability to assess a country’s current economic health. By comparing similar countries (including peer countries within the same income classification), we are able to identify key themes that must be addressed.

That said, the Akholi Model 4 rarely is used to define growth targets for a specific country / indicator. Our goal is to help countries move up to higher income classifications and we rarely define targets for a specific country / indicator combination that would continue to have them perform within the same income classification.

Model 5: CPI Quintile Average

There is a massive correlation between a country’s corruption levels and overall economic performance. With the release of each year’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International, we group all countries into CPI quintiles.

Once these quintiles have been defined, we calculate the average per capita value for the indicator for all countries within the same CPI quintile. We typically do not use the Akholi Research Model 5 in defining performance targets. However, we extensively use this model to help us convey the importance of resolving ongoing corruption problems to countries we work with.

Model 6: Regional Top 5 Country Average

The Akholi Research Model 6 represents the average per capita value of the top five countries in each official region for the indicator being studied.  This does not necessarily mean the top five economies within the region. Frequently, the top five performers list per region per indicator will include different countries than the top overall performing economies.

We use this model extensively to both measure economic performance and to define theoretical targets. Out of all models we work with, the Akholi Research Model 6 is our most common model used in defining our exact recommended target for any country / indicator combination.

Model 7: Regional Top Country Value

The Akholi Research Model 7 represents the per capita value for the regional top performer for the indicator being studied.

We extensive use this model to both assess an economy and define ceiling targets for any country / indicator combination. Unlike our rule with Model 1 (refusing to define targets below global averages), we do, on occasion, define targets that exceed the per capita performance of the region’s per forming country. When we define a target value for the country / indicator combination above this model, we take care to assess our targets against other models and ensure that our target is justified given unique circumstances.

Model 8: Tertiary Education Rate Quintile Average

As we move further into a technology centered world, tertiary education rates become increasingly important. We rank each country based on their current tertiary education rate and then divide all countries into quintiles. After the quintiles have been defined, we calculate the average per capita value of the indicator being studied by each quintile.

With the average per capita rate calculated for each quintile, we compare countries against their peer tertiary education rate quintile to asses how effectively the country has been in leveraging education for economic gain.

Most often, we use this model to help gauge performance of highly educated countries against their peers. We also use this model to create theoretical economic growth models if the country were to improve their tertiary education rates.

Although not common, we do use this model occasionally to define our boundaries for our targeting process.

We also use this model to help build the value proposition for greater workforce development investments. We help countries develop a cost model for improving tertiary education rates. Once this cost model is complete, we use the Akholi Research Model 8 to create theoretical economic targets after achieving higher tertiary education rates. Using existing tax and public sector revenue models, we then work with countries to justify or counter proposals for greater workforce development investments.

Model 9: STEM Skills Density Quintile Average

Building off the Akholi Model 8 listed above, we perform modeling based on each country’s density of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) resources. With occasionally spotty data, we have three versions of this model and assess the country based on an average of these versions. Our versions of this model include the following:

  1. Number of STEM resources in the existing labor force.
  2. Number of STEM graduates per year.
  3. Number of students currently pursuing a STEM defined degree.

Once each country has been ranked, we aggregate them by quintile and calculate the per capita value for each STEM skills density quintile.

We use this model extensively for three primary purposes:

  1. This model helps demonstrate underperformance in the general high-tech and ICT exports space among highly educated countries.
  2. This model helps us in calculating theoretical economic gain if any given country improves their STEM skills density within their workforce.
  3. Similar to the Akholi Model 8, we use this model to help create a value proposition for countries wanting to make greater workforce developmental investments. We use this to help create workforce development ROI models.

Model 10: Indicator Top Quintile Average

After ranking each country’s per capita performance for the specific indicator being studied and grouping all countries into quintiles, we calculate the average per capita value for the top quintile.

We use this model extensively to help define theoretical targets for countries considered to be mid-income or mid to high income.

Model 11: Trade Bloc - Customs Union Average

For the indicator being studied, we calculated the average per capita value of all countries that are a member of a specific trade bloc, trade union, customs zone or other trade agreement country aggregations. We currently calculate the average per capita value for over twenty of groupings around the world.

Although this model is reasonably similar to the Akholi Research Model 2 (regional average), this model does provide some additional insight.

We do not use this model in calculating theoretical economic gain from joining one of these organizations. We use this model exclusively to measure performance of a country against peer countries within the organization and as a global reference point in various charts, graphs, etc.

Model 12: G20 Average

We calculate the per capita average value for the indicator being studied for all members of G20.

We typically use this for information only and rarely use this for either a true economic assessment or to create theoretical targets.

Model 13: G8 Average

Similar to Model 12, we calculate the per capita average value for the indicator being studied for all G8 members.

We use this for information only and rarely use this for either a true economic assessment or to create theoretical targets.

Model 14: Indicator Top Performer Value

In our last model, we note the single top per capita performing country for the indicator being studied.

This model is usually referencing smaller countries with a unique story related to the key indicator being studied. Be it a small country with a massive global trade port or a small country with a global leasing financial services industry, the combination of the small population and abnormally high root indicator value places the country on top.

We do not use this model in our overall assessment or target creation processes. Most often, we use this model to define the absolute theoretical top ceiling.

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